Hallwang 1–1 ÖTSU Hallein: Result & Stats

Hallwang

FT

1 – 1

ÖTSU Hallein

9/7/2019

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 6Sportplatz Hallwang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hallwang29%

×Draw21%

ÖTSU Hallein49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HallwangExpected goals in this matchÖTSU Hallein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

2.08

Hallwang

1.57

ÖTSU Hallein

2.08

ÖTSU Hallein creates 32% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 23 away

1.72

creates per match

1.78

2.39

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Hallwang

1.72

ÖTSU Hallein

1.78

allows per match

Hallwang

2.39

ÖTSU Hallein

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hallwang+0.00on par

ÖTSU Hallein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallwang ↓

ÖTSU Hallein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Hallwang or draw

51%

Hallwang or ÖTSU Hallein

79%

Draw or ÖTSU Hallein

71%

Winning margin

Hallwang wins by 2+

14%

ÖTSU Hallein wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Hallwang 1+ goals

79%

Hallwang 2+ goals

46%

Hallwang 3+ goals

21%

ÖTSU Hallein 1+ goals

87%

ÖTSU Hallein 2+ goals

61%

ÖTSU Hallein 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Hallwang (draw refunded)

37%

ÖTSU Hallein (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallwang at home — creates 1.72, concedes 2.39 · 69 matches

ÖTSU Hallein away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallwang attack 1.72 + ÖTSU Hallein defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

ÖTSU Hallein attack 1.78 + Hallwang defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hallwang scores more

29%

level

21%

ÖTSU Hallein scores more

49%

ÖTSU Hallein at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ÖTSU Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff