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Hallescher FC vs Greifswalder FC — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Hallescher FC
Hallescher FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
F. Hartmann 86'
N. Stierlin 57'
2/21/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 23Leuna Chemie Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hallescher FC48%
×Draw28%
Greifswalder FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hallescher FC
1.34
Greifswalder FC
0.84

Hallescher FC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 33 away

creates per match

Hallescher FC
1.29
Greifswalder FC
1.12

allows per match

Hallescher FC
0.57
Greifswalder FC
1.39

finishing

Hallescher FC+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallescher FC ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hallescher FC or draw
77%
Hallescher FC or Greifswalder FC
72%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
52%

Winning margin

Hallescher FC wins by 2+
23%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hallescher FC 1+ goals
74%
Hallescher FC 2+ goals
39%
Hallescher FC 3+ goals
15%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
57%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
21%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hallescher FC (draw refunded)
67%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallescher FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallescher FC attack 1.29 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Greifswalder FC attack 1.12 + Hallescher FC defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hallescher FC scores more
48%
level
28%
Greifswalder FC scores more
23%

Hallescher FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hallescher FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
N. Stierlin
86'
F. Hartmann

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Nordost: Hallescher FC 2–0 Greifswalder FC

Hallescher FC beat Greifswalder FC 2-0 in Regionalliga - Nordost on February 21, 2026.

Goals: N. Stierlin (57'), F. Hartmann (86').

The match was played at Leuna Chemie Stadion in Halle.