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Hallescher FC vs Energie Cottbus — League #80 2026

Hallescher FC
Hallescher FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Energie Cottbus
Energie Cottbus
M. Heyer 42'
P. Sohm 12'
J. Matuwila 90+2'
S. Mamba 50'
K. Weidlich 28'
3/13/2019League #80League #80 · Round 28Erdgas Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hallescher FC27%
×Draw24%
Energie Cottbus49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hallescher FC
1.17
Energie Cottbus
1.67

Energie Cottbus creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hallescher FC
1.33
Energie Cottbus
1.67

allows per match

Hallescher FC
1.67
Energie Cottbus
1.00

finishing

Hallescher FC+0.00on par
Energie Cottbus+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallescher FC ↓

Energie Cottbus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hallescher FC or draw
51%
Hallescher FC or Energie Cottbus
76%
Draw or Energie Cottbus
73%

Winning margin

Hallescher FC wins by 2+
11%
Energie Cottbus wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Hallescher FC 1+ goals
69%
Hallescher FC 2+ goals
33%
Hallescher FC 3+ goals
11%
Energie Cottbus 1+ goals
81%
Energie Cottbus 2+ goals
50%
Energie Cottbus 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hallescher FC (draw refunded)
35%
Energie Cottbus (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallescher FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Energie Cottbus away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallescher FC attack 1.33 + Energie Cottbus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Energie Cottbus attack 1.67 + Hallescher FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hallescher FC scores more
27%
level
24%
Energie Cottbus scores more
49%

Energie Cottbus at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Energie Cottbus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
P. Sohm
28'
K. Weidlich↳ J. Gjasula
42'
M. Heyer↳ N. Landgraf
50'
S. Mamba↳ F. Viteritti
56'
B. Jopek← T. Lindenhahn
58'
Jose Matuwila
67'
M. Pronichev← B. Manu
71'
L. Hemmerich← K. Weidlich
75'
D. Tuma← P. Sohm
87'
F. Geisler← S. Mamba
90'
Marcelo Freitas
90+1'
M. Broschinski← F. Viteritti
90+2'
J. Matuwila↳ J. Gjasula

Possession

56%Hallescher

Shots

9Hallescher

Statistics

HallescherEnergie
Overview
56%Possession44%
9Total Shots4
7Corners6
12Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots4
5On Target3
4Off Target1
Passing
56%Possession44%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
3Offsides0

League #80: Hallescher FC 2–3 Energie Cottbus

Energie Cottbus beat Hallescher FC 3-2 in League #80 on March 13, 2019.

Goals: P. Sohm (12'), K. Weidlich (28'), M. Heyer (42'), S. Mamba (50'), J. Matuwila (90+2').

Hallescher FC controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 4.

The match was played at Erdgas Sportpark in Halle.