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Hallescher FC vs BFC Preussen — League #85 2026

Hallescher FC
Hallescher FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
BFC Preussen
BFC Preussen
P. Breitkreuz 46'
9/20/2025League #85League #85 · Nordost - 9Leuna Chemie Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hallescher FC39%
×Draw28%
BFC Preussen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hallescher FC
1.23
BFC Preussen
1.12

Hallescher FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hallescher FC
1.29
BFC Preussen
1.67

allows per match

Hallescher FC
0.57
BFC Preussen
1.17

finishing

Hallescher FC+0.00on par
BFC Preussen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallescher FC ↓

BFC Preussen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hallescher FC or draw
67%
Hallescher FC or BFC Preussen
72%
Draw or BFC Preussen
61%

Winning margin

Hallescher FC wins by 2+
17%
BFC Preussen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hallescher FC 1+ goals
71%
Hallescher FC 2+ goals
35%
Hallescher FC 3+ goals
13%
BFC Preussen 1+ goals
67%
BFC Preussen 2+ goals
31%
BFC Preussen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hallescher FC (draw refunded)
54%
BFC Preussen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallescher FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

BFC Preussen away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallescher FC attack 1.29 + BFC Preussen defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

BFC Preussen attack 1.67 + Hallescher FC defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hallescher FC scores more
39%
level
28%
BFC Preussen scores more
33%

Hallescher FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hallescher FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
P. Breitkreuz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hallescher FC vs BFC Preussen

BFC Preussen beat Hallescher FC 1-0 in League #85 on September 20, 2025.

Goals: P. Breitkreuz (46').

The match was played at Leuna Chemie Stadion in Halle.