Hallescher FC U19 0–1 Union Berlin U19

Hallescher FC U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Union Berlin U19

L. Czosnyka 88'

10/17/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 3Nachwuchszentrum Sandanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hallescher FC U1936%

×Draw21%

Union Berlin U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hallescher FC U19Expected goals in this matchUnion Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.98

Hallescher FC U19

1.79

Union Berlin U19

1.98

Union Berlin U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 76 away

1.89

creates per match

1.95

2.00

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Hallescher FC U19

1.89

Union Berlin U19

1.95

allows per match

Hallescher FC U19

2.00

Union Berlin U19

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallescher FC U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Hallescher FC U19 or draw

57%

Hallescher FC U19 or Union Berlin U19

79%

Draw or Union Berlin U19

64%

Winning margin

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

18%

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

83%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

53%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

26%

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

86%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

59%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallescher FC U19 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.00 · 37 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.70 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.89 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.95 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

36%

level

21%

Union Berlin U19 scores more

43%

Union Berlin U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

L. Haase← Ü. Durmushan

61'

G. Labroussis← L. Dahlke

76'

T. Bergmann← M. Pälchen

77'

Ruben Travassos← N. Kaus

78'

78'

86'

87'

88'

Hallescher

Union

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Shubitidze

76'▲T. Bergmann←▼M. Pälchen

78'▲L. Halangk←▼B. Weick

78'▲R. Monecke←▼T. Koch

86'▲M. Hennig←▼T. Berndt

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

BergmannHalangkMoneckeHennigSothenBendelWagner

Manager: A. Vilk

26'▲L. Haase←▼Ü. Durmushan

61'▲G. Labroussis←▼L. Dahlke

77'▲Ruben Travassos←▼N. Kaus

87'▲L. Czosnyka←▼M. Ihbe

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

HaaseLabroussisTravassosCzosnykaSrdicCvjetinovicStein