Hallescher FC U19 1–1 Hamburger SV U19

Hallescher FC U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hamburger SV U19

A. Sothen 44'

T. Sanne 60'

10/2/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 6Nachwuchszentrum Sandanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hallescher FC U1935%

×Draw21%

Hamburger SV U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hallescher FC U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

2.05

Hallescher FC U19

1.84

Hamburger SV U19

2.05

Hamburger SV U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 80 away

1.89

creates per match

2.11

2.00

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Hallescher FC U19

1.89

Hamburger SV U19

2.11

allows per match

Hallescher FC U19

2.00

Hamburger SV U19

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallescher FC U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Hallescher FC U19 or draw

57%

Hallescher FC U19 or Hamburger SV U19

79%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

65%

Winning margin

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

18%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

84%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

55%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

28%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

87%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

61%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallescher FC U19 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.00 · 37 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.79 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.89 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.84

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.11 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

35%

level

21%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

43%

Hamburger SV U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

E. Krahn← F. Böhmker

44'

A. Sothen

46'

J. Kilo← L. Bozickovic

54'

M. Sungur← M. Khalil

60'

T. Sanne

63'

M. Nejad Haji Lor← J. Sherbourne

72'

M. Heftezgi← A. Sothen

81'

E. Sohn← L. Seifert

87'

T. Koczulap← L. Lippoldt

Hallescher

Hamburger

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Sothen

Manager: M. Buszkowiak

54'▲M. Sungur←▼M. Khalil

72'▲M. Heftezgi←▼A. Sothen

87'▲T. Koczulap←▼L. Lippoldt

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

SungurHeftezgiKoczulapNeckeSultaniHaenschBergmann

Manager: O. Kirch

36'▲E. Krahn←▼F. Böhmker

46'▲J. Kilo←▼L. Bozickovic

63'▲M. Nejad Haji Lor←▼J. Sherbourne

81'▲E. Sohn←▼L. Seifert

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

KrahnKiloLorSohnBoadiPlazaMensah

Match Recap: Hallescher FC U19 vs Hamburger SV U19

Hallescher FC U19 and Hamburger SV U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 2, 2021.

Goals: A. Sothen (44'), T. Sanne (60').

The match was played at Nachwuchszentrum Sandanger in Saale.

Hallescher FC U19 vs Hamburger SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hallescher FC U19 vs Hamburger SV U19