Hallbergmoos-Goldach 3–1 Türkspor Augsburg

Hallbergmoos-Goldach

FT

3 – 1

Türkspor Augsburg

7/29/2022

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 4Sportpark Hallbergmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hallbergmoos-Goldach40%

×Draw24%

Türkspor Augsburg37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hallbergmoos-GoldachExpected goals in this matchTürkspor Augsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.55

Hallbergmoos-Goldach

1.63

Türkspor Augsburg

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 66 away

1.06

creates per match

0.86

2.24

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Hallbergmoos-Goldach

1.06

Türkspor Augsburg

0.86

allows per match

Hallbergmoos-Goldach

2.24

Türkspor Augsburg

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hallbergmoos-Goldach+0.00on par

Türkspor Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallbergmoos-Goldach ↓

Türkspor Augsburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hallbergmoos-Goldach or draw

63%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach or Türkspor Augsburg

76%

Draw or Türkspor Augsburg

60%

Winning margin

Hallbergmoos-Goldach wins by 2+

20%

Türkspor Augsburg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hallbergmoos-Goldach 1+ goals

80%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach 2+ goals

48%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach 3+ goals

22%

Türkspor Augsburg 1+ goals

79%

Türkspor Augsburg 2+ goals

46%

Türkspor Augsburg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hallbergmoos-Goldach (draw refunded)

52%

Türkspor Augsburg (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallbergmoos-Goldach at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Türkspor Augsburg away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.20 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallbergmoos-Goldach attack 1.06 + Türkspor Augsburg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.63

Türkspor Augsburg attack 0.86 + Hallbergmoos-Goldach defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hallbergmoos-Goldach scores more

40%

level

24%

Türkspor Augsburg scores more

37%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hallbergmoos-Goldach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff