Hallbergmoos-Goldach 1–4 Gundelfingen

Hallbergmoos-Goldach

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Gundelfingen

5/19/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 33Sportpark Hallbergmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hallbergmoos-Goldach30%

×Draw24%

Gundelfingen46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hallbergmoos-GoldachExpected goals in this matchGundelfingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.68

Hallbergmoos-Goldach

1.30

Gundelfingen

1.68

Gundelfingen creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 50 away

1.06

creates per match

1.12

2.24

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Hallbergmoos-Goldach

1.06

Gundelfingen

1.12

allows per match

Hallbergmoos-Goldach

2.24

Gundelfingen

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hallbergmoos-Goldach+0.00on par

Gundelfingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallbergmoos-Goldach ↓

Gundelfingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hallbergmoos-Goldach or draw

54%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach or Gundelfingen

76%

Draw or Gundelfingen

70%

Winning margin

Hallbergmoos-Goldach wins by 2+

13%

Gundelfingen wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Hallbergmoos-Goldach 1+ goals

73%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach 2+ goals

37%

Hallbergmoos-Goldach 3+ goals

14%

Gundelfingen 1+ goals

81%

Gundelfingen 2+ goals

50%

Gundelfingen 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hallbergmoos-Goldach (draw refunded)

39%

Gundelfingen (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallbergmoos-Goldach at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Gundelfingen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.54 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallbergmoos-Goldach attack 1.06 + Gundelfingen defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.30

Gundelfingen attack 1.12 + Hallbergmoos-Goldach defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hallbergmoos-Goldach scores more

30%

level

24%

Gundelfingen scores more

46%

Gundelfingen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gundelfingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hallbergmoos-Goldach vs Gundelfingen

Gundelfingen beat Hallbergmoos-Goldach 4-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Hallbergmoos in Hallbergmoos.

Hallbergmoos-Goldach vs Gundelfingen — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hallbergmoos-Goldach vs Gundelfingen