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HAlku II vs ToBK — Suomen Cup 2018

HAlku II
HAlku II
FT
0 – 5
ToBK
ToBK
2/25/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Preliminary RoundJärvenpää Monitoimihalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HAlku II0%
×Draw3%
ToBK97%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HAlku II
0.17
ToBK
4.17

ToBK creates 2353% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

HAlku II
0.00
ToBK
3.33

allows per match

HAlku II
5.00
ToBK
0.33

finishing

HAlku II+0.00on par
ToBK+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HAlku II ↓

ToBK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–16%
0–213%
0–318%
0–419%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–33%
1–43%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (19%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

HAlku II or draw
3%
HAlku II or ToBK
97%
Draw or ToBK
100%

Winning margin

HAlku II wins by 2+
0%
ToBK wins by 2+
88%

Team goals

HAlku II 1+ goals
16%
HAlku II 2+ goals
1%
HAlku II 3+ goals
0%
ToBK 1+ goals
98%
ToBK 2+ goals
91%
ToBK 3+ goals
75%

Draw no bet

HAlku II (draw refunded)
0%
ToBK (draw refunded)
100%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HAlku II at home — creates 0.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

ToBK away — creates 3.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HAlku II attack 0.00 + ToBK defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.17

ToBK attack 3.33 + HAlku II defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 4.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

HAlku II scores more
0%
level
3%
ToBK scores more
97%

ToBK at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "ToBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: HAlku II 0–5 ToBK

ToBK beat HAlku II 5-0 in Suomen Cup on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Järvenpää Monitoimihalli in Järvenpää.