HAlku II 1–1 Akilles: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

HAlku II

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Akilles

3/8/2025

Suomen Cup · Preliminary RoundJärvenpää Monitoimihalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HAlku II2%

×Draw5%

Akilles92%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HAlku IIExpected goals in this matchAkilles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

4.33

HAlku II

0.67

Akilles

4.33

Akilles creates 546% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.00

creates per match

3.67

5.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

HAlku II

0.00

Akilles

3.67

allows per match

HAlku II

5.00

Akilles

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HAlku II+0.00on par

Akilles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HAlku II ↓

Akilles →

0–01%

0–13%

0–27%

0–311%

0–412%

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–37%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–32%

2–43%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (12%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

HAlku II or draw

HAlku II or Akilles

95%

Draw or Akilles

98%

Winning margin

HAlku II wins by 2+

Akilles wins by 2+

81%

Team goals

HAlku II 1+ goals

49%

HAlku II 2+ goals

15%

HAlku II 3+ goals

Akilles 1+ goals

98%

Akilles 2+ goals

92%

Akilles 3+ goals

77%

Draw no bet

HAlku II (draw refunded)

Akilles (draw refunded)

98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

HAlku II at home — creates 0.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

Akilles away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

HAlku II attack 0.00 + Akilles defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Akilles attack 3.67 + HAlku II defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 4.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 92%?"

HAlku II scores more

level

Akilles scores more

92%

Akilles at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Akilles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff