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Haladás VSE vs Csornai SE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Haladás VSE
Haladás VSE
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
7/30/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 1Haladás Sportelep Kondics uti pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Haladás VSE49%
×Draw23%
Csornai SE28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haladás VSE
1.85
Csornai SE
1.34

Haladás VSE creates 38% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Haladás VSE
1.38
Csornai SE
0.93

allows per match

Haladás VSE
1.76
Csornai SE
2.33

finishing

Haladás VSE+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haladás VSE ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Haladás VSE or draw
72%
Haladás VSE or Csornai SE
77%
Draw or Csornai SE
51%

Winning margin

Haladás VSE wins by 2+
27%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Haladás VSE 1+ goals
84%
Haladás VSE 2+ goals
55%
Haladás VSE 3+ goals
28%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
74%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
39%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Haladás VSE (draw refunded)
64%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haladás VSE at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haladás VSE attack 1.38 + Csornai SE defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Csornai SE attack 0.93 + Haladás VSE defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Haladás VSE scores more
49%
level
23%
Csornai SE scores more
28%

Haladás VSE at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Haladás VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haladás VSE vs Csornai SE

Haladás VSE beat Csornai SE 2-1 in NB III - Northwest on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Haladás Sportelep Kondics uti pálya in Szombathely.