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Hakoah Sydney City vs Central Coast United — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Hakoah Sydney City
Hakoah Sydney City
FT
3 – 0
Central Coast United
Central Coast United
7/15/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 24Hensley Athletic Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hakoah Sydney City56%
×Draw20%
Central Coast United24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hakoah Sydney City
2.35
Central Coast United
1.50

Hakoah Sydney City creates 57% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hakoah Sydney City
1.84
Central Coast United
1.40

allows per match

Hakoah Sydney City
1.59
Central Coast United
2.87

finishing

Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par
Central Coast United+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hakoah Sydney City ↓

Central Coast United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Hakoah Sydney City or draw
76%
Hakoah Sydney City or Central Coast United
80%
Draw or Central Coast United
44%

Winning margin

Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+
35%
Central Coast United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals
90%
Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals
68%
Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals
41%
Central Coast United 1+ goals
78%
Central Coast United 2+ goals
44%
Central Coast United 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)
70%
Central Coast United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hakoah Sydney City at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

Central Coast United away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.84 + Central Coast United defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.35

Central Coast United attack 1.40 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hakoah Sydney City scores more
56%
level
20%
Central Coast United scores more
24%

Hakoah Sydney City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hakoah Sydney City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hakoah Sydney City 3 – 0 Central Coast United

Hakoah Sydney City beat Central Coast United 3-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Hensley Athletic Field in Eastgardens, Botany Bay.