Hakoah Sydney City 5–1 Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Hakoah Sydney City

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

V. Cuny 85'

G. Tuson-Firth 79', 69', 34'

B. Fuchs 44'

D. Bittar 38'

4/26/2025

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 12Hensley Athletic Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Hakoah Sydney City48%

×Draw22%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hakoah Sydney CityExpected goals in this matchBonnyrigg White Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.45

Hakoah Sydney City

1.91

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.45

Hakoah Sydney City creates 32% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 62 away

1.84

creates per match

1.31

1.59

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Hakoah Sydney City

1.84

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.31

allows per match

Hakoah Sydney City

1.59

Bonnyrigg White Eagles

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hakoah Sydney City ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hakoah Sydney City or draw

71%

Hakoah Sydney City or Bonnyrigg White Eagles

78%

Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles

52%

Winning margin

Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+

27%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals

85%

Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals

57%

Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals

30%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals

77%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals

42%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)

62%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hakoah Sydney City at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.84 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.91

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hakoah Sydney City scores more

48%

level

22%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more

29%

Hakoah Sydney City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hakoah Sydney City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

G. Tuson-Firth

38'

D. Bittar

44'

B. Fuchs

69'

G. Tuson-Firth

79'

G. Tuson-Firth

85'

V. Cuny

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff