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Haka vs Union Plaani — Suomen Cup 2018

Haka
Haka
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Union Plaani
Union Plaani
5/28/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundTehtaan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Haka41%
×Draw20%
Union Plaani39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
2.17
Union Plaani
2.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Haka
2.33
Union Plaani
3.00

allows per match

Haka
1.25
Union Plaani
2.00

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
Union Plaani+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

Union Plaani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Haka or draw
61%
Haka or Union Plaani
80%
Draw or Union Plaani
59%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
23%
Union Plaani wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
89%
Haka 2+ goals
64%
Haka 3+ goals
36%
Union Plaani 1+ goals
88%
Union Plaani 2+ goals
63%
Union Plaani 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
51%
Union Plaani (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Union Plaani away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 2.33 + Union Plaani defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Union Plaani attack 3.00 + Haka defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Haka scores more
41%
level
20%
Union Plaani scores more
39%

Haka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haka vs Union Plaani

Haka beat Union Plaani 6-0 in Suomen Cup on May 28, 2025.

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä in Valkeakoski.