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Haka vs TPV — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Haka
Haka
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
TPV
TPV
3/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Haka54%
×Draw24%
TPV22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
1.70
TPV
1.00

Haka creates 70% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Haka
1.60
TPV
1.20

allows per match

Haka
0.80
TPV
1.80

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
TPV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

TPV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Haka or draw
78%
Haka or TPV
76%
Draw or TPV
46%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
29%
TPV wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
82%
Haka 2+ goals
51%
Haka 3+ goals
24%
TPV 1+ goals
63%
TPV 2+ goals
26%
TPV 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
71%
TPV (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

TPV away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 1.60 + TPV defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.70

TPV attack 1.20 + Haka defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Haka scores more
54%
level
24%
TPV scores more
22%

Haka at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haka 3 – 1 TPV

Haka beat TPV 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on March 22, 2026.