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Haka vs MyPa — Suomen Cup 2018

Haka
Haka
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
MyPa
MyPa
1/26/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 1Saharan tekonurmi (Valkeakoski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Haka55%
×Draw20%
MyPa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
2.30
MyPa
1.49

Haka creates 54% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Haka
2.33
MyPa
1.73

allows per match

Haka
1.25
MyPa
2.27

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
MyPa+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

MyPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Haka or draw
75%
Haka or MyPa
80%
Draw or MyPa
45%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
34%
MyPa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
90%
Haka 2+ goals
67%
Haka 3+ goals
40%
MyPa 1+ goals
77%
MyPa 2+ goals
44%
MyPa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
69%
MyPa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

MyPa away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 2.33 + MyPa defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.30

MyPa attack 1.73 + Haka defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Haka scores more
55%
level
20%
MyPa scores more
25%

Haka at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haka vs MyPa

Haka and MyPa drew 2-2 in Suomen Cup on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Saharan tekonurmi (Valkeakoski).