Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Haka vs MyPa — Veikkausliiga 2026

Haka
Haka
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
MyPa
MyPa
7/15/2012VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 17Tehtaan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Haka66%
×Draw19%
MyPa15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
2.31
MyPa
1.01

Haka creates 129% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 4 away

creates per match

Haka
1.37
MyPa
0.50

allows per match

Haka
1.52
MyPa
3.25

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
MyPa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

MyPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Haka or draw
85%
Haka or MyPa
81%
Draw or MyPa
34%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
43%
MyPa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
90%
Haka 2+ goals
67%
Haka 3+ goals
40%
MyPa 1+ goals
64%
MyPa 2+ goals
27%
MyPa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
81%
MyPa (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.52 · 82 matches

MyPa away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 1.37 + MyPa defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.31

MyPa attack 0.50 + Haka defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Haka scores more
66%
level
19%
MyPa scores more
15%

Haka at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Haka 3–1 MyPa

Haka beat MyPa 3-1 in Veikkausliiga on July 15, 2012.

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä.