Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Haka vs Musa — Suomen Cup 2018

Haka
Haka
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Musa
Musa
4/16/2015Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 6th RoundTehtaan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Haka36%
×Draw20%
Musa44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
2.05
Musa
2.26

Musa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Haka
2.46
Musa
3.29

allows per match

Haka
1.23
Musa
1.64

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
Musa+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

Musa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Haka or draw
56%
Haka or Musa
80%
Draw or Musa
64%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
19%
Musa wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
87%
Haka 2+ goals
61%
Haka 3+ goals
33%
Musa 1+ goals
89%
Musa 2+ goals
66%
Musa 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
45%
Musa (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Musa away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 2.46 + Musa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.05

Musa attack 3.29 + Haka defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Haka scores more
36%
level
20%
Musa scores more
44%

Musa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Musa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haka 2 – 2 Musa

Haka and Musa drew 2-2 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2015.

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä in Valkeakoski.