Haka vs MP: Preview & Prediction | Ykkösliiga

Haka

Preview

15:30

MP

9/6/2026

Ykkösliiga · Group Stage

Big match

59%

Haka

model favours

59%21%20%

Both teams score in 92% of MP’s matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

62%

over 2.5 goals

59%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Haka59%

×Draw21%

MP20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HakaExpected goals in this matchMP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.11

Haka

2.08

MP

1.11

Haka creates 87% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

2.33

creates per match

0.78

1.44

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Haka

2.33

MP

0.78

allows per match

Haka

1.44

MP

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haka+0.00on par

MP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

MP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Haka or draw

80%

Haka or MP

79%

Draw or MP

41%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+

36%

MP wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals

87%

Haka 2+ goals

61%

Haka 3+ goals

34%

MP 1+ goals

67%

MP 2+ goals

30%

MP 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)

75%

MP (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

MP away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 2.33 + MP defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

MP attack 0.78 + Haka defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Haka scores more

59%

level

21%

MP scores more

20%

Haka at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

MP score first in only 25% of matches
MP raise their game against the top half — 27% wins vs the upper half, only 23% vs the lower
69% of Haka’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Haka

WDWLL

MP

DLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff