Haka 5–0 MP: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Haka

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

T. Lähdesmäki 88'

N. Mäenpää 71', 29'

K. Multanen 58', 12'

3/7/2017

Suomen Cup · Group Stage - 1Saharan tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Haka71%

×Draw14%

MP15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HakaExpected goals in this matchMP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.42

1.58

Haka

3.42

1.58

Haka creates 116% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

4.67

creates per match

2.50

0.67

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Haka

4.67

2.50

allows per match

Haka

0.67

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haka+0.00on par

MP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

MP →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Haka or draw

85%

Haka or MP

86%

Draw or MP

29%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+

52%

MP wins by 2+

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals

97%

Haka 2+ goals

85%

Haka 3+ goals

64%

MP 1+ goals

79%

MP 2+ goals

47%

MP 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)

83%

MP (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 4.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

MP away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 4.67 + MP defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 3.42

MP attack 2.50 + Haka defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Haka scores more

71%

level

14%

MP scores more

15%

Haka at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

K. Multanen

29'

N. Mäenpää

58'

K. Multanen

66'

S. Kariniitty← J. Liukkonen

71'

N. Mäenpää

78'

E. Helminen← N. Mäenpää

78'

M. Kyttä← V. Nyström

83'

J. Kyöstilä← H. Malundama

88'

I. Häkkinen← J. Kimari

88'

Haka

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Mäenpää

⚽2

Multanen

Mbachu

Manager: K. Armstrong

78'▲E. Helminen←▼N. Mäenpää

83'▲J. Kyöstilä←▼H. Malundama

Haka substitutes

HelminenKyöstiläJussilaJärviKarjanlahti

Manager: I. Mäkelä

66'▲S. Kariniitty←▼J. Liukkonen

78'▲M. Kyttä←▼V. Nyström

88'▲I. Häkkinen←▼J. Kimari

MP substitutes

KariniittyKyttäHäkkinenNumminenPosti

Suomen Cup: Haka 5–0 MP

Haka beat MP 5-0 in Suomen Cup on March 7, 2017.

Goals: K. Multanen (12', 58'), N. Mäenpää (29', 71'), T. Lähdesmäki (88').

The match was played at Saharan tekonurmi in Valkeakoski.

Haka vs MP — Suomen Cup 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Suomen Cup: Haka 5–0 MP