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Haka vs HJS Akatemia — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Haka
Haka
FT
2 – 0
HJS Akatemia
HJS Akatemia
3/7/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Tehtaan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Haka65%
×Draw20%
HJS Akatemia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
2.13
HJS Akatemia
0.90

Haka creates 137% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Haka
1.60
HJS Akatemia
1.00

allows per match

Haka
0.80
HJS Akatemia
2.67

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

HJS Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Haka or draw
85%
Haka or HJS Akatemia
80%
Draw or HJS Akatemia
35%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
41%
HJS Akatemia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
88%
Haka 2+ goals
63%
Haka 3+ goals
35%
HJS Akatemia 1+ goals
59%
HJS Akatemia 2+ goals
23%
HJS Akatemia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
81%
HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

HJS Akatemia away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 1.60 + HJS Akatemia defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

HJS Akatemia attack 1.00 + Haka defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Haka scores more
65%
level
20%
HJS Akatemia scores more
15%

Haka at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Haka 2–0 HJS Akatemia

Haka beat HJS Akatemia 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä in Valkeakoski.