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Haka vs HIFK Helsinki — Veikkausliiga 2018

Haka
Haka
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
8/5/2020VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 7Tehtaan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Haka40%
×Draw26%
HIFK Helsinki34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
1.44
HIFK Helsinki
1.31

Haka creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 52 away

creates per match

Haka
1.32
HIFK Helsinki
1.08

allows per match

Haka
1.54
HIFK Helsinki
1.56

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

HIFK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Haka or draw
66%
Haka or HIFK Helsinki
74%
Draw or HIFK Helsinki
60%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
19%
HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
76%
Haka 2+ goals
42%
Haka 3+ goals
18%
HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
73%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
38%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
54%
HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.54 · 80 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 1.32 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.08 + Haka defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Haka scores more
40%
level
26%
HIFK Helsinki scores more
34%

Haka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Haka 0–2 HIFK Helsinki

HIFK Helsinki beat Haka 2-0 in Veikkausliiga on August 5, 2020.

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä in Valkeakoski.