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Haka vs Gnistan — Veikkausliiga 2018

Haka
Haka
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gnistan
Gnistan
7/28/2024VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 17Tehtaan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Haka40%
×Draw24%
Gnistan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
1.57
Gnistan
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 38 away

creates per match

Haka
1.32
Gnistan
1.39

allows per match

Haka
1.54
Gnistan
1.82

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Haka or draw
64%
Haka or Gnistan
76%
Draw or Gnistan
60%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
20%
Gnistan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
79%
Haka 2+ goals
46%
Haka 3+ goals
21%
Gnistan 1+ goals
77%
Gnistan 2+ goals
43%
Gnistan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
53%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.54 · 80 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 1.32 + Gnistan defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.57

Gnistan attack 1.39 + Haka defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Haka scores more
40%
level
24%
Gnistan scores more
36%

Haka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Haka 1–2 Gnistan

Gnistan beat Haka 2-1 in Veikkausliiga on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä in Valkeakoski.