Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Haka vs AC Oulu — Veikkausliiga 2026

Haka
Haka
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AC Oulu
AC Oulu
9/19/2025VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Relegation Round - 2Tehtaan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Haka41%
×Draw24%
AC Oulu35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka
1.58
AC Oulu
1.43

Haka creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

creates per match

Haka
1.32
AC Oulu
1.32

allows per match

Haka
1.54
AC Oulu
1.84

finishing

Haka+0.00on par
AC Oulu+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka ↓

AC Oulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Haka or draw
65%
Haka or AC Oulu
76%
Draw or AC Oulu
59%

Winning margin

Haka wins by 2+
21%
AC Oulu wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Haka 1+ goals
79%
Haka 2+ goals
47%
Haka 3+ goals
21%
AC Oulu 1+ goals
76%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
42%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Haka (draw refunded)
54%
AC Oulu (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.54 · 80 matches

AC Oulu away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.84 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka attack 1.32 + AC Oulu defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.58

AC Oulu attack 1.32 + Haka defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Haka scores more
41%
level
24%
AC Oulu scores more
35%

Haka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haka 0 – 1 AC Oulu

AC Oulu beat Haka 1-0 in Veikkausliiga on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä in Valkeakoski.