Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Haka Juniorit vs Ylöjärvi United — Suomen Cup 2018

Haka Juniorit
Haka Juniorit
FT
4 – 2
Ylöjärvi United
Ylöjärvi United
4/5/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundTehtaan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Haka Juniorit31%
×Draw20%
Ylöjärvi United49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka Juniorit
1.83
Ylöjärvi United
2.33

Ylöjärvi United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Haka Juniorit
1.33
Ylöjärvi United
1.33

allows per match

Haka Juniorit
3.33
Ylöjärvi United
2.33

finishing

Haka Juniorit+0.00on par
Ylöjärvi United+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka Juniorit ↓

Ylöjärvi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Haka Juniorit or draw
51%
Haka Juniorit or Ylöjärvi United
80%
Draw or Ylöjärvi United
69%

Winning margin

Haka Juniorit wins by 2+
15%
Ylöjärvi United wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Haka Juniorit 1+ goals
84%
Haka Juniorit 2+ goals
54%
Haka Juniorit 3+ goals
28%
Ylöjärvi United 1+ goals
90%
Ylöjärvi United 2+ goals
67%
Ylöjärvi United 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Haka Juniorit (draw refunded)
39%
Ylöjärvi United (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka Juniorit at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Ylöjärvi United away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka Juniorit attack 1.33 + Ylöjärvi United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ylöjärvi United attack 1.33 + Haka Juniorit defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Haka Juniorit scores more
31%
level
20%
Ylöjärvi United scores more
49%

Ylöjärvi United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ylöjärvi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Haka Juniorit 4–2 Ylöjärvi United

Haka Juniorit beat Ylöjärvi United 4-2 in Suomen Cup on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä in Valkeakoski.