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Haka Juniorit vs Turku PS — Suomen Cup 2018

Haka Juniorit
Haka Juniorit
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Turku PS
Turku PS
4/14/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundTehtaan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Haka Juniorit16%
×Draw17%
Turku PS67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haka Juniorit
1.25
Turku PS
2.67

Turku PS creates 114% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

Haka Juniorit
1.33
Turku PS
2.00

allows per match

Haka Juniorit
3.33
Turku PS
1.18

finishing

Haka Juniorit+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka Juniorit ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Haka Juniorit or draw
33%
Haka Juniorit or Turku PS
83%
Draw or Turku PS
84%

Winning margin

Haka Juniorit wins by 2+
6%
Turku PS wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Haka Juniorit 1+ goals
71%
Haka Juniorit 2+ goals
36%
Haka Juniorit 3+ goals
13%
Turku PS 1+ goals
93%
Turku PS 2+ goals
74%
Turku PS 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Haka Juniorit (draw refunded)
19%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haka Juniorit at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Turku PS away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haka Juniorit attack 1.33 + Turku PS defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Turku PS attack 2.00 + Haka Juniorit defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Haka Juniorit scores more
16%
level
17%
Turku PS scores more
67%

Turku PS at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haka Juniorit vs Turku PS

Turku PS beat Haka Juniorit 4-0 in Suomen Cup on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Tehtaan kenttä in Valkeakoski.