Haka-j / Musta 0–3 Tervakosken Pato: Result & Stats

Haka-j / Musta

0 – 3

Tervakosken Pato

3/19/2024

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundValkeakosken Palloiluhalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Haka-j / Musta25%

×Draw17%

Tervakosken Pato59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haka-j / MustaExpected goals in this matchTervakosken Pato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

3.25

Haka-j / Musta

2.13

Tervakosken Pato

3.25

Tervakosken Pato creates 53% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

1.25

5.25

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Haka-j / Musta

1.25

Tervakosken Pato

1.25

allows per match

Haka-j / Musta

5.25

Tervakosken Pato

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haka-j / Musta+0.00on par

Tervakosken Pato+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haka-j / Musta ↓

Tervakosken Pato →

0–00%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–36%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

Haka-j / Musta or draw

41%

Haka-j / Musta or Tervakosken Pato

83%

Draw or Tervakosken Pato

75%

Winning margin

Haka-j / Musta wins by 2+

12%

Tervakosken Pato wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Haka-j / Musta 1+ goals

88%

Haka-j / Musta 2+ goals

63%

Haka-j / Musta 3+ goals

35%

Tervakosken Pato 1+ goals

96%

Tervakosken Pato 2+ goals

83%

Tervakosken Pato 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Haka-j / Musta (draw refunded)

30%

Tervakosken Pato (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Haka-j / Musta at home — creates 1.25, concedes 5.25 · 4 matches

Tervakosken Pato away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Haka-j / Musta attack 1.25 + Tervakosken Pato defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Tervakosken Pato attack 1.25 + Haka-j / Musta defence 5.25 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Haka-j / Musta scores more

25%

level

17%

Tervakosken Pato scores more

59%

Tervakosken Pato at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tervakosken Pato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff