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Hajer vs Al Jandal — Division 1 2018

Hajer
Hajer
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Al Jandal
Al Jandal
3/16/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 26Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hajer50%
×Draw26%
Al Jandal23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajer
1.49
Al Jandal
0.92

Hajer creates 62% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hajer
1.27
Al Jandal
0.96

allows per match

Hajer
0.88
Al Jandal
1.71

finishing

Hajer+0.00on par
Al Jandal+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajer ↓

Al Jandal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hajer or draw
77%
Hajer or Al Jandal
74%
Draw or Al Jandal
50%

Winning margin

Hajer wins by 2+
26%
Al Jandal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hajer 1+ goals
77%
Hajer 2+ goals
44%
Hajer 3+ goals
19%
Al Jandal 1+ goals
60%
Al Jandal 2+ goals
23%
Al Jandal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hajer (draw refunded)
68%
Al Jandal (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajer at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 74 matches

Al Jandal away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajer attack 1.27 + Al Jandal defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.49

Al Jandal attack 0.96 + Hajer defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hajer scores more
50%
level
26%
Al Jandal scores more
23%

Hajer at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hajer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hajer 3 – 1 Al Jandal

Hajer beat Al Jandal 3-1 in Division 1 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Al-Hasa.