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Hajer vs Al Arabi SC — Division 1 2018

Hajer
Hajer
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
2/1/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 19Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hajer46%
×Draw27%
Al Arabi SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajer
1.43
Al Arabi SC
1.03

Hajer creates 39% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hajer
1.27
Al Arabi SC
1.18

allows per match

Hajer
0.88
Al Arabi SC
1.59

finishing

Hajer+0.00on par
Al Arabi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajer ↓

Al Arabi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hajer or draw
73%
Hajer or Al Arabi SC
73%
Draw or Al Arabi SC
54%

Winning margin

Hajer wins by 2+
22%
Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hajer 1+ goals
76%
Hajer 2+ goals
42%
Hajer 3+ goals
17%
Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
64%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
28%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hajer (draw refunded)
63%
Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajer at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 74 matches

Al Arabi SC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajer attack 1.27 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Al Arabi SC attack 1.18 + Hajer defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hajer scores more
46%
level
27%
Al Arabi SC scores more
27%

Hajer at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hajer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Hajer 0–1 Al Arabi SC

Al Arabi SC beat Hajer 1-0 in Division 1 on February 1, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Al-Hasa.