Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hajer vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Division 1 2018

Hajer
Hajer
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
J. Makusu 56'
R. Boudebouz 90+7' (pen)
H. Al-Ali 45'
5/3/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 30Hajer Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hajer30%
×Draw31%
Al-Ahli Jeddah39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajer
0.90
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.08

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 20% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hajer
1.27
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.29

allows per match

Hajer
0.88
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0.53

finishing

Hajer+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajer ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hajer or draw
61%
Hajer or Al-Ahli Jeddah
69%
Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
70%

Winning margin

Hajer wins by 2+
10%
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hajer 1+ goals
59%
Hajer 2+ goals
23%
Hajer 3+ goals
6%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
66%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
29%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hajer (draw refunded)
43%
Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajer at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 74 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajer attack 1.27 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.90

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.29 + Hajer defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hajer scores more
30%
level
31%
Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
39%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
H. Al-Ali
56'
J. Makusu
90+7'
R. BoudebouzPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajer vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Hajer 2-1 in Division 1 on May 3, 2023.

Goals: H. Al-Ali (45'), J. Makusu (56'), R. Boudebouz (90+7' pen).

The match was played at Hajer Club Stadium in Al-Hofuf.