Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2–1 Tiszafuredi VSE

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tiszafuredi VSE

3/19/2023

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 26Bocskai Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE49%

×Draw25%

Tiszafuredi VSE27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hajdúszoboszlói SEExpected goals in this matchTiszafuredi VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.14

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

1.63

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.14

Hajdúszoboszlói SE creates 43% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 102 away

1.61

creates per match

1.45

0.82

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

1.61

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.45

allows per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

0.82

Tiszafuredi VSE

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajdúszoboszlói SE ↓

Tiszafuredi VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hajdúszoboszlói SE or draw

73%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE or Tiszafuredi VSE

75%

Draw or Tiszafuredi VSE

51%

Winning margin

Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+

26%

Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals

80%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals

48%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals

22%

Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals

68%

Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals

32%

Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)

65%

Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Tiszafuredi VSE away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.61 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.45 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more

49%

level

25%

Tiszafuredi VSE scores more

27%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hajdúszoboszlói SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff