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Hajdúszoboszlói SE vs Putnok VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
4/26/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 34Nyíradony VVTK Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE46%
×Draw25%
Putnok VSE29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.58
Putnok VSE
1.22

Hajdúszoboszlói SE creates 30% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 112 away

creates per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.61
Putnok VSE
1.63

allows per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
0.82
Putnok VSE
1.54

finishing

Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par
Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajdúszoboszlói SE ↓

Putnok VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hajdúszoboszlói SE or draw
71%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE or Putnok VSE
75%
Draw or Putnok VSE
54%

Winning margin

Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
23%
Putnok VSE wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
79%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
47%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
21%
Putnok VSE 1+ goals
70%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
34%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
61%
Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Putnok VSE away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.61 + Putnok VSE defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Putnok VSE attack 1.63 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
46%
level
25%
Putnok VSE scores more
29%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hajdúszoboszlói SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajdúszoboszlói SE vs Putnok VSE

Putnok VSE beat Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3-1 in NB III - Northeast on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Nyíradony VVTK Sporttelep in Nyíradony.