Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1–0 Füzesgyarmati

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Füzesgyarmati

2/19/2023

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 22Bocskai Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE51%

×Draw25%

Füzesgyarmati24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hajdúszoboszlói SEExpected goals in this matchFüzesgyarmati

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.03

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

1.62

Füzesgyarmati

1.03

Hajdúszoboszlói SE creates 57% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 67 away

1.61

creates per match

1.24

0.82

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

1.61

Füzesgyarmati

1.24

allows per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

0.82

Füzesgyarmati

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajdúszoboszlói SE ↓

Füzesgyarmati →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hajdúszoboszlói SE or draw

76%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE or Füzesgyarmati

75%

Draw or Füzesgyarmati

49%

Winning margin

Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+

27%

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals

80%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals

48%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals

22%

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals

64%

Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals

28%

Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)

68%

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Füzesgyarmati away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.61 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.62

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.24 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more

51%

level

25%

Füzesgyarmati scores more

24%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hajdúszoboszlói SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff