Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hajduk Veljko vs Rembas — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Hajduk Veljko
Hajduk Veljko
FT
3 – 0
Rembas
Rembas
4/3/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 20Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hajduk Veljko43%
×Draw25%
Rembas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk Veljko
1.54
Rembas
1.30

Hajduk Veljko creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 56 away

creates per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.14
Rembas
1.39

allows per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.21
Rembas
1.95

finishing

Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par
Rembas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Veljko ↓

Rembas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hajduk Veljko or draw
68%
Hajduk Veljko or Rembas
75%
Draw or Rembas
57%

Winning margin

Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+
21%
Rembas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals
79%
Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals
45%
Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals
20%
Rembas 1+ goals
73%
Rembas 2+ goals
37%
Rembas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)
57%
Rembas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Veljko at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Rembas away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.95 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Veljko attack 1.14 + Rembas defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rembas attack 1.39 + Hajduk Veljko defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hajduk Veljko scores more
43%
level
25%
Rembas scores more
32%

Hajduk Veljko at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hajduk Veljko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Hajduk Veljko 3–0 Rembas

Hajduk Veljko beat Rembas 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Negotin.