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Hajduk Veljko vs Radnički Svilajnac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Hajduk Veljko
Hajduk Veljko
FT
1 – 0
Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
11/7/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 13Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hajduk Veljko38%
×Draw26%
Radnički Svilajnac36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk Veljko
1.34
Radnički Svilajnac
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 78 away

creates per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.14
Radnički Svilajnac
1.37

allows per match

Hajduk Veljko
1.21
Radnički Svilajnac
1.54

finishing

Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par
Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Veljko ↓

Radnički Svilajnac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hajduk Veljko or draw
64%
Hajduk Veljko or Radnički Svilajnac
74%
Draw or Radnički Svilajnac
62%

Winning margin

Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+
17%
Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals
74%
Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals
39%
Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals
15%
Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
72%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
37%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)
52%
Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Veljko at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Radnički Svilajnac away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Veljko attack 1.14 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Radnički Svilajnac attack 1.37 + Hajduk Veljko defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hajduk Veljko scores more
38%
level
26%
Radnički Svilajnac scores more
36%

Hajduk Veljko at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hajduk Veljko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajduk Veljko vs Radnički Svilajnac

Hajduk Veljko beat Radnički Svilajnac 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Negotin.