Hajduk Veljko 3–2 Meševo: Result & Stats

Hajduk Veljko

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Meševo

5/15/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 27Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hajduk Veljko45%

×Draw26%

Meševo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hajduk VeljkoExpected goals in this matchMeševo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.13

Hajduk Veljko

1.48

Meševo

1.13

Hajduk Veljko creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 45 away

1.14

creates per match

1.04

1.21

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Hajduk Veljko

1.14

Meševo

1.04

allows per match

Hajduk Veljko

1.21

Meševo

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par

Meševo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Veljko ↓

Meševo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hajduk Veljko or draw

71%

Hajduk Veljko or Meševo

74%

Draw or Meševo

55%

Winning margin

Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+

22%

Meševo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals

77%

Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals

43%

Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals

19%

Meševo 1+ goals

68%

Meševo 2+ goals

31%

Meševo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)

61%

Meševo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Veljko at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Meševo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Veljko attack 1.14 + Meševo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Meševo attack 1.04 + Hajduk Veljko defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hajduk Veljko scores more

45%

level

26%

Meševo scores more

29%

Hajduk Veljko at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hajduk Veljko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff