Hajduk Split U19 1–0 Shakhtar Donetsk U19

Hajduk Split U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

L. Vušković 81'

2/8/2023

UEFA Youth League · Play-offsStadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hajduk Split U1970%

×Draw18%

Shakhtar Donetsk U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hajduk Split U19Expected goals in this matchShakhtar Donetsk U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.75

Hajduk Split U19

2.19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

0.75

Hajduk Split U19 creates 192% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

2.57

creates per match

0.94

0.57

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Hajduk Split U19

2.57

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

0.94

allows per match

Hajduk Split U19

0.57

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hajduk Split U19+0.00on par

Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Split U19 ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hajduk Split U19 or draw

89%

Hajduk Split U19 or Shakhtar Donetsk U19

82%

Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk U19

30%

Winning margin

Hajduk Split U19 wins by 2+

46%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Hajduk Split U19 1+ goals

89%

Hajduk Split U19 2+ goals

64%

Hajduk Split U19 3+ goals

37%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals

53%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals

17%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Split U19 (draw refunded)

86%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Split U19 at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Split U19 attack 2.57 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 0.94 + Hajduk Split U19 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Hajduk Split U19 scores more

70%

level

18%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more

11%

Hajduk Split U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hajduk Split U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

D. Reic

26'

M. Farina

44'

S. Hrgovic

45+1'

M. Juric-Petrasilo

57'

N. Duić← D. Reić

57'

D. Begonja← T. Arković

60'

Y. Yanovich← O. Yushchenko

68'

N. Skoko← M. Antunović

75'

D. Begonja

81'

L. Vušković↳ M. Capan

82'

O. Pushkarov← A. Hlushchenko

83'

N. Skoko

87'

I. Losenko

88'

L. Vuskovic

88'

90+1'

90+3'

90+6'

90+6'

Hajduk

Shakhtar

1

5

2

3

4

6

11

▼

Hlushchen

7

▼

10

8

9

33

4

14

5

⚽

Vušković

24

▼

Arković

36

Kavelj

8

A

Capan

28

▼

Nazor

25

▼

Reić

9

▼

Antunović

11

Brajković

Manager: M. Budimir

57'▲N. Duić←▼D. Reić

57'▲D. Begonja←▼T. Arković

68'▲N. Skoko←▼M. Antunović

88'▲N. Pavić←▼K. Nazor

Hajduk Split U19 substitutes

26Duić23Begonja15Skoko29Pavić99Fesyuk7Jemo32Bobanović

Manager: O. Ratulutra

60'▲Y. Yanovich←▼O. Yushchenko

82'▲O. Pushkarov←▼A. Hlushchenko

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 substitutes

15Yanovich18Pushkarov16Tsukanov12Barchenko14Bashmarin13Chuiko17Bundash

UEFA Youth League: Hajduk Split U19 1–0 Shakhtar Donetsk U19

Hajduk Split U19 beat Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on February 8, 2023.

Goals: L. Vušković (81').

The match was played at Stadion Poljud in Split.

Hajduk Split U19 vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Hajduk Split U19 1–0 Shakhtar Donetsk U19