Hajduk Split U19 3–1 Milan U19: Result & Stats

Hajduk Split U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Milan U19

Š. Hrgović 76'

R. Pukštas 69'

J. Vrcić 51'

K. Zeroli 83'

4/21/2023

UEFA Youth League · Semi-finalsStade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hajduk Split U1972%

×Draw18%

Milan U1910%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hajduk Split U19Expected goals in this matchMilan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

0.69

Hajduk Split U19

2.24

Milan U19

0.69

Hajduk Split U19 creates 225% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

2.57

creates per match

0.82

0.57

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Hajduk Split U19

2.57

Milan U19

0.82

allows per match

Hajduk Split U19

0.57

Milan U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hajduk Split U19+0.00on par

Milan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Split U19 ↓

Milan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hajduk Split U19 or draw

90%

Hajduk Split U19 or Milan U19

82%

Draw or Milan U19

28%

Winning margin

Hajduk Split U19 wins by 2+

48%

Milan U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Hajduk Split U19 1+ goals

89%

Hajduk Split U19 2+ goals

65%

Hajduk Split U19 3+ goals

38%

Milan U19 1+ goals

50%

Milan U19 2+ goals

15%

Milan U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Split U19 (draw refunded)

88%

Milan U19 (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Split U19 at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Milan U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Split U19 attack 2.57 + Milan U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.24

Milan U19 attack 0.82 + Hajduk Split U19 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Hajduk Split U19 scores more

72%

level

18%

Milan U19 scores more

10%

Hajduk Split U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Hajduk Split U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

M. Casali

33'

L. Vuskovic

51'

J. Vrcić↳ R. Brajković

66'

K. Nazor← M. Antunović

66'

T. Arković← N. Skoko

69'

R. Pukštas↳ R. Brajković

70'

C. Traorè← D. Sia

70'

G. Alesi← D. Stalmach

76'

Š. Hrgović

78'

D. Bartesaghi← A. Bozzolan

78'

J. Longhi← H. Cuenca

81'

R. Brajkovic

81'

83'

88'

89'

90+3'

D. Reić← R. Brajković

90'

D. Begonja← Š. Hrgović

Hajduk

Milan

69

Nava

3

▼

Bozzolan

2

Coubiș

6

Nsiala-Ma

91

▼

Casali

16

▼

Stalmach

18

⚽

Zeroli

22

Eletu

27

▼

Cuenca

10

Hilali

61

▼

Sia

33

Buljan

4

Jurić-Pet

14

⚽

▼

2

5

36

21

⚽

Pukštas

15

▼

Skoko

9

▼

Antunović

11

A

▼

Brajković

10

⚽

Vrcić

Manager: M. Budimir

66'▲K. Nazor←▼M. Antunović

66'▲T. Arković←▼N. Skoko

90+3'▲D. Reić←▼R. Brajković

90'▲D. Begonja←▼Š. Hrgović

Hajduk Split U19 substitutes

28Nazor24Arković25Reić23Begonja30Čalušić99Fesyuk26Duić

Manager: I. Abate

70'▲C. Traorè←▼D. Sia

70'▲G. Alesi←▼D. Stalmach

78'▲D. Bartesaghi←▼A. Bozzolan

78'▲J. Longhi←▼H. Cuenca

89'▲J. Šimić←▼M. Casali

Milan U19 substitutes

11Traorè7Alesi97Bartesaghi80Longhi5Šimić17Foglio24Bartoccioni

UEFA Youth League: Hajduk Split U19 3–1 Milan U19

Hajduk Split U19 beat Milan U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on April 21, 2023.

Goals: J. Vrcić (51'), R. Pukštas (69'), Š. Hrgović (76'), K. Zeroli (83').

The match was played at Stade de Genève in Lancy.

Hajduk Split U19 vs Milan U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Hajduk Split U19 3–1 Milan U19