Hajduk 1912 Kula 1–2 Vojvodina 1928: Result & Stats

Hajduk 1912 Kula

FT

1 – 2

Vojvodina 1928

6/5/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 38Stadion Milan Sredanović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula58%

×Draw22%

Vojvodina 192820%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hajduk 1912 KulaExpected goals in this matchVojvodina 1928

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.00

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.90

Vojvodina 1928

1.00

Hajduk 1912 Kula creates 90% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 43 away

1.61

creates per match

0.72

1.28

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.61

Vojvodina 1928

0.72

allows per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.28

Vojvodina 1928

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Vojvodina 1928+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk 1912 Kula ↓

Vojvodina 1928 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hajduk 1912 Kula or draw

80%

Hajduk 1912 Kula or Vojvodina 1928

78%

Draw or Vojvodina 1928

42%

Winning margin

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+

34%

Vojvodina 1928 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals

85%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals

56%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals

29%

Vojvodina 1928 1+ goals

63%

Vojvodina 1928 2+ goals

26%

Vojvodina 1928 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)

75%

Vojvodina 1928 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk 1912 Kula at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

Vojvodina 1928 away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.61 + Vojvodina 1928 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.90

Vojvodina 1928 attack 0.72 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more

58%

level

22%

Vojvodina 1928 scores more

20%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff