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Hajduk 1912 Kula vs Radnički Zrenjanin — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
FT
2 – 1
Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
5/22/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 36Stadion Milan Sredanović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula49%
×Draw24%
Radnički Zrenjanin27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.70
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.18

Hajduk 1912 Kula creates 44% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 87 away

creates per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.61
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.08

allows per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.28
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.78

finishing

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par
Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk 1912 Kula ↓

Radnički Zrenjanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hajduk 1912 Kula or draw
73%
Hajduk 1912 Kula or Radnički Zrenjanin
76%
Draw or Radnički Zrenjanin
51%

Winning margin

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
27%
Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
82%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
51%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
24%
Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
69%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
33%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
65%
Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk 1912 Kula at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

Radnički Zrenjanin away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.61 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.08 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
49%
level
24%
Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
27%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajduk 1912 Kula vs Radnički Zrenjanin

Hajduk 1912 Kula beat Radnički Zrenjanin 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Milan Sredanović in Kula.