Hajduk 1912 Kula 2–3 Mladost Novi Sad

Hajduk 1912 Kula

FT

2 – 3

Mladost Novi Sad

10/10/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 12Stadion Milan Sredanović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula31%

×Draw25%

Mladost Novi Sad44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hajduk 1912 KulaExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.56

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.25

Mladost Novi Sad

1.56

Mladost Novi Sad creates 25% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 19 away

1.61

creates per match

1.84

1.28

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.61

Mladost Novi Sad

1.84

allows per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.28

Mladost Novi Sad

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk 1912 Kula ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hajduk 1912 Kula or draw

56%

Hajduk 1912 Kula or Mladost Novi Sad

75%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

69%

Winning margin

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+

13%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals

71%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals

36%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals

13%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

79%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

46%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)

41%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk 1912 Kula at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.61 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.84 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more

31%

level

25%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

44%

Mladost Novi Sad at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff