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Hajduk 1912 Kula vs Kabel Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Kabel Novi Sad
Kabel Novi Sad
6/3/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 29Stadion Milan Sredanović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula46%
×Draw26%
Kabel Novi Sad28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.49
Kabel Novi Sad
1.10

Hajduk 1912 Kula creates 35% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 44 away

creates per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.61
Kabel Novi Sad
0.93

allows per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.28
Kabel Novi Sad
1.36

finishing

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par
Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk 1912 Kula ↓

Kabel Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hajduk 1912 Kula or draw
72%
Hajduk 1912 Kula or Kabel Novi Sad
74%
Draw or Kabel Novi Sad
54%

Winning margin

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
23%
Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
77%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
44%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
19%
Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals
67%
Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals
30%
Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
62%
Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk 1912 Kula at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

Kabel Novi Sad away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.61 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.49

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.93 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
46%
level
26%
Kabel Novi Sad scores more
28%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajduk 1912 Kula vs Kabel Novi Sad

Kabel Novi Sad beat Hajduk 1912 Kula 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Milan Sredanović in Kula.