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Hajduk 1912 Kula vs Jedinstvo Stara Pazova — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
FT
2 – 2
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
4/9/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 21Stadion Milan Sredanović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula50%
×Draw24%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.70
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.16

Hajduk 1912 Kula creates 47% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 78 away

creates per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.61
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.03

allows per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.28
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.78

finishing

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk 1912 Kula ↓

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hajduk 1912 Kula or draw
74%
Hajduk 1912 Kula or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
76%
Draw or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
50%

Winning margin

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
27%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
82%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
51%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
24%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals
69%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals
32%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
66%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk 1912 Kula at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.61 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.03 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
50%
level
24%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more
26%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hajduk 1912 Kula 2 – 2 Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

Hajduk 1912 Kula and Jedinstvo Stara Pazova drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Milan Sredanović in Kula.