Hajduk 1912 Kula 1–2 Borac Sakule: Result & Stats

Hajduk 1912 Kula

FT

1 – 2

Borac Sakule

4/14/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 28Stadion Milan Sredanović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula44%

×Draw24%

Borac Sakule32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hajduk 1912 KulaExpected goals in this matchBorac Sakule

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.34

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.60

Borac Sakule

1.34

Hajduk 1912 Kula creates 19% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 42 away

1.61

creates per match

1.40

1.28

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.61

Borac Sakule

1.40

allows per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula

1.28

Borac Sakule

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk 1912 Kula ↓

Borac Sakule →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hajduk 1912 Kula or draw

68%

Hajduk 1912 Kula or Borac Sakule

76%

Draw or Borac Sakule

56%

Winning margin

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+

22%

Borac Sakule wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals

80%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals

47%

Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals

22%

Borac Sakule 1+ goals

74%

Borac Sakule 2+ goals

39%

Borac Sakule 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)

58%

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk 1912 Kula at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

Borac Sakule away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.61 + Borac Sakule defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Borac Sakule attack 1.40 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more

44%

level

24%

Borac Sakule scores more

32%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff