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Hajduk 1912 Kula vs Backa — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Backa
Backa
4/20/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 24Stadion Milan Sredanović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula52%
×Draw24%
Backa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.66
Backa
1.03

Hajduk 1912 Kula creates 61% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 37 away

creates per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.61
Backa
0.78

allows per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.28
Backa
1.70

finishing

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk 1912 Kula ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hajduk 1912 Kula or draw
76%
Hajduk 1912 Kula or Backa
76%
Draw or Backa
48%

Winning margin

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
28%
Backa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
81%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
49%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
23%
Backa 1+ goals
64%
Backa 2+ goals
28%
Backa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
69%
Backa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk 1912 Kula at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

Backa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.61 + Backa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.66

Backa attack 0.78 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
52%
level
24%
Backa scores more
24%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Hajduk 1912 Kula 2–1 Backa

Hajduk 1912 Kula beat Backa 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Milan Sredanović in Kula.