Haitzendorf 1–0 USC Rohrbach: Result & Stats

Haitzendorf

FT

1 – 0

USC Rohrbach

11/5/2023

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 14Sportplatz Haitzendorf SV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Haitzendorf51%

×Draw22%

USC Rohrbach27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaitzendorfExpected goals in this matchUSC Rohrbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.33

Haitzendorf

1.90

USC Rohrbach

1.33

Haitzendorf creates 43% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 71 away

1.86

creates per match

1.06

1.59

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Haitzendorf

1.86

USC Rohrbach

1.06

allows per match

Haitzendorf

1.59

USC Rohrbach

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haitzendorf+0.00on par

USC Rohrbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haitzendorf ↓

USC Rohrbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Haitzendorf or draw

73%

Haitzendorf or USC Rohrbach

78%

Draw or USC Rohrbach

49%

Winning margin

Haitzendorf wins by 2+

29%

USC Rohrbach wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Haitzendorf 1+ goals

85%

Haitzendorf 2+ goals

56%

Haitzendorf 3+ goals

29%

USC Rohrbach 1+ goals

74%

USC Rohrbach 2+ goals

38%

USC Rohrbach 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Haitzendorf (draw refunded)

65%

USC Rohrbach (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haitzendorf at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

USC Rohrbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.94 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haitzendorf attack 1.86 + USC Rohrbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.90

USC Rohrbach attack 1.06 + Haitzendorf defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Haitzendorf scores more

51%

level

22%

USC Rohrbach scores more

27%

Haitzendorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Haitzendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff