Hainan Star 1–0 Zhuhai Qin'ao: Result & Stats

Hainan Star

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zhuhai Qin'ao

8/3/2022

League Two · Round 7Duyun International Football Town Field 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hainan Star25%

×Draw31%

Zhuhai Qin'ao44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hainan StarExpected goals in this matchZhuhai Qin'ao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.14

Hainan Star

0.77

Zhuhai Qin'ao

1.14

Zhuhai Qin'ao creates 48% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 7 away

1.11

creates per match

1.00

1.28

allows per match

0.43

creates per match

Hainan Star

1.11

Zhuhai Qin'ao

1.00

allows per match

Hainan Star

1.28

Zhuhai Qin'ao

0.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par

Zhuhai Qin'ao+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Zhuhai Qin'ao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw

56%

Hainan Star or Zhuhai Qin'ao

69%

Draw or Zhuhai Qin'ao

75%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+

8%

Zhuhai Qin'ao wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals

54%

Hainan Star 2+ goals

18%

Hainan Star 3+ goals

4%

Zhuhai Qin'ao 1+ goals

68%

Zhuhai Qin'ao 2+ goals

32%

Zhuhai Qin'ao 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)

36%

Zhuhai Qin'ao (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Zhuhai Qin'ao away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Zhuhai Qin'ao defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.77

Zhuhai Qin'ao attack 1.00 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hainan Star scores more

25%

level

31%

Zhuhai Qin'ao scores more

44%

Zhuhai Qin'ao at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zhuhai Qin'ao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff