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Hainan Star vs Yunnan Yukun — League Two 2022

Hainan Star
Hainan Star
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun
6/17/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hainan Star25%
×Draw23%
Yunnan Yukun52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hainan Star
1.15
Yunnan Yukun
1.77

Yunnan Yukun creates 54% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 11 away

creates per match

Hainan Star
1.11
Yunnan Yukun
2.27

allows per match

Hainan Star
1.28
Yunnan Yukun
1.18

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par
Yunnan Yukun+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Yunnan Yukun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw
48%
Hainan Star or Yunnan Yukun
77%
Draw or Yunnan Yukun
75%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+
10%
Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals
68%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
32%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
11%
Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals
83%
Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals
53%
Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)
32%
Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Yunnan Yukun away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Yunnan Yukun defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Yunnan Yukun attack 2.27 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hainan Star scores more
25%
level
23%
Yunnan Yukun scores more
52%

Yunnan Yukun at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Yunnan Yukun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hainan Star vs Yunnan Yukun

Hainan Star beat Yunnan Yukun 3-1 in League Two on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Haikou.