Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hainan Star vs Wuhan Jiangcheng — League Two 2022

Hainan Star
Hainan Star
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Wuhan Jiangcheng
Wuhan Jiangcheng
10/14/2023League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 7Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hainan Star33%
×Draw26%
Wuhan Jiangcheng41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hainan Star
1.25
Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.42

Wuhan Jiangcheng creates 14% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hainan Star
1.11
Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.56

allows per match

Hainan Star
1.28
Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.39

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par
Wuhan Jiangcheng+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Wuhan Jiangcheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw
59%
Hainan Star or Wuhan Jiangcheng
74%
Draw or Wuhan Jiangcheng
67%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+
14%
Wuhan Jiangcheng wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals
71%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
36%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
13%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 1+ goals
76%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 2+ goals
41%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)
45%
Wuhan Jiangcheng (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Wuhan Jiangcheng away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Wuhan Jiangcheng defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Wuhan Jiangcheng attack 1.56 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hainan Star scores more
33%
level
26%
Wuhan Jiangcheng scores more
41%

Wuhan Jiangcheng at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wuhan Jiangcheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Hainan Star 4–1 Wuhan Jiangcheng

Hainan Star beat Wuhan Jiangcheng 4-1 in League Two on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Haikou.