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Hainan Star vs Rizhao Yuqi — League Two 2022

Hainan Star
Hainan Star
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rizhao Yuqi
Rizhao Yuqi
10/19/2024League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 10Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hainan Star39%
×Draw28%
Rizhao Yuqi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hainan Star
1.22
Rizhao Yuqi
1.10

Hainan Star creates 11% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 36 away

creates per match

Hainan Star
1.11
Rizhao Yuqi
0.92

allows per match

Hainan Star
1.28
Rizhao Yuqi
1.33

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par
Rizhao Yuqi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Rizhao Yuqi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw
67%
Hainan Star or Rizhao Yuqi
72%
Draw or Rizhao Yuqi
61%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+
17%
Rizhao Yuqi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals
70%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
34%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
12%
Rizhao Yuqi 1+ goals
67%
Rizhao Yuqi 2+ goals
30%
Rizhao Yuqi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)
54%
Rizhao Yuqi (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Rizhao Yuqi away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Rizhao Yuqi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Rizhao Yuqi attack 0.92 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hainan Star scores more
39%
level
28%
Rizhao Yuqi scores more
33%

Hainan Star at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hainan Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hainan Star vs Rizhao Yuqi

Hainan Star beat Rizhao Yuqi 3-2 in League Two on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Haikou.